This is where I keep notes on whatever I'm working on - from data and modelling projects to research questions of increasingly questionable academic interest.
Here we detail the actual electoral predictor itself: vote flows, simulated uncertainty, and a tactical-voting system, all to produce some hopefully-defensible seat-by-seat forecasts
As a country, we do tend to obsess over how downtrodden or genteel a neighbourhood, town or city is. Here, we try to quantify that obsession, to gauge the value of a house by its objectively measured 'affluence'. And as per the timeless national joke, London does its own thing
With Uniform National Swing (UNS) as dead as a dodo, every UK election model eventually has to decide what a constituency ‘is,’ part 1 found that doing so with a single label was about as accurate as describing a person by their star sign. Here we stop doing that, and start letting each of Britain's 632 seats be several different kinds of place at once.
Originally built to make the research above easier to explore and work with; now that I've finally got around to the frontend, it can pass as an app. Includes every UK general election since 2005, a 2029 prediction, and a what-if predictor for anyone who fancies rigging an election from the comfort of their own browser. Model source →
A model which will happily estimate what a property is worth from its characteristics and its neighbourhood's socioeconomic profile, and, if it's a London postcode, quietly disagree with you about it. Source →