This is where I keep notes on whatever I'm currently working on — a UK general election model, a dissertation project, and whatever comes next.
Flows, uncertainty, and tactical voting — opening up the pipeline that turns any group structure into seat-by-seat forecasts.
A dissertation project's baseline house-price model finds sensible, well-behaved relationships everywhere — until it hits the one UK housing market that isn't behaving like the rest of the country.
Why single-category constituency models are running out of road, and what unmixing 632 seats’ census composition into a handful of shared archetypes gets us instead.
An interactive constituency map built alongside the blog posts above — every UK general election since 2005, a 2029 prediction, and a custom what-if predictor.
A live Random Forest model, from the house-price dissertation post, that estimates a sale price from a property's characteristics and its LSOA's socioeconomic profile.